Posted 20 hours ago

How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence

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I needed something exciting to read and did not really check who Mr Omand is until I had read the first twenty or so pages. Het vertegenwoordigt de vier soorten informatie waaruit een inlichtingenproduct kan bestaan en de verschillende analyseniveaus waaruit ze zijn afgeleid.

The meat of the content is contained in the first 4 chapters, where the author expresses their explanatory 'SEES' model. In 2018 schreef hij, samen met Mark Phythian, Principled Spying over de ethiek van geheime inlichtingen. Zijn SEES-model laat in wezen zien wat analisten doen als zij ontwikkelingen en gebeurtenissen in de wereld onderzoeken. Omand besteedt daarnaast veel tijd aan de logica van gehanteerde aannames en gevolgtrekkingen (“assumptions and inferences”).Reading the news on social media, figuring out the next step in your career, or trying to discover if gossip about a friend is legitimate, you are building an image of the world and making decisions about it.

Importantly also, what our leaders have to contend with - too often criticised and subject to protest by those holding an incomplete picture. The lesson he provides in an approach to critical thinking and analysis are as applicable in the world of government policy analysis, business development or investing as they are in the intelligence realm. Betrouwbare, wederkerige relaties zijn voor inlichtingendiensten belangrijker dan de ‘quid pro quo’-balans in enge zin.Wielrenners kennen het begrip ‘vals plat’: een klim die visueel niet meteen als zodanig valt te onderkennen totdat kuitspieren en longen de eerste protesten doorgeven. Bullet-pointed summaries at the end of each chapter allow the reader to easily take in these insights. The final element is the assessment of any issues that might affect the item under consideration, including events that might be considered as outliers at the moment.

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